The German Federal Minister of Economics and Technology Peter Altmaier has confirmed the sentiment. That we will have to expect a GDP decrease of 4.8 percent in 2020. He suggests a quick relief afterwards. Simultaneously, he is not giving a prognosis regarding the ramp-up or the end of the shutdown. The common forecast of leading German economic research institutes (such as DIW Berlin, ifo Munich, IfW) is anticipating a decrease of the GDP by 4.2 percent in 2020 and an increase by 5.8 percent in 2021.
How does the scenario of a sharp downturn and a subsequent strong upturn work?
If we assume that only 40 percent of our economy have to defray the above mentioned 4.2 or 4.8 percent, this means a downturn of approx. 12 percent for all sectors. When simplifying the calculation, this sums up to one service month. Consequently, applying this logic means at the end of April, everything MUST be up and running again. How does this comply with the reluctant statements concerning the termination of the shutdown?
Now, leadership is in demand. We need clear prospects. ConMoto expects the definition of the epidemiological preconditions for the termination of the shutdown. This includes a significant increase in the number of tests as well as introducing guidelines for companies from the industry, retails, service and hospitality sectors.
The industry sector already provides examples for impressive initiatives:
Seat is producing respirators utilizing windscreen wiper engines,
VW is 3D printing valves for masks,
Bosch is working on test equipment,
Tesla is assembling medical devices from serial parts,
There are numerous sewing facilities making masks,
Distilleries produce sanitizers,
Restaurants offer new delivery services and possibilities for pick-up.
The economy is not the problem – we need a common goal now!